Exeter Study: Land-Based Seafood Farming Could Offset 80% of UK Protein Loss From Tree Planting
University of Exeter modelling finds recirculating aquaculture could offset 80% of UK protein loss from a 30,000-hectare tree-planting policy.
Photo by Lu Zhao on Pexels
Recirculating aquaculture systems, tank-based land seafood farms, could offset 80 percent of the protein loss caused by the UK’s planned 30,000-hectare woodland expansion while using less than 1 percent of that land, according to University of Exeter modelling published September 9, 2026. The study, “Recirculating aquaculture can reconcile food supply and afforestation in Great Britain,” appeared in the Journal of Cleaner Production.
The research modelled the food-supply trade-offs of the UK government’s afforestation targets, which convert farmland to woodland and reduce domestic food production capacity. Researchers found that recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS), which raise fish and shellfish in land-based tanks rather than open water or farmland, can replace lost protein without competing for the same land needed for tree planting.
One-facility subsidy shows the biggest return
The study found that a moderate subsidy covering 100 percent of the upfront cost of a single RAS facility produced the largest food-production and carbon-mitigation gain per pound of public funding, more cost-effective than spreading smaller subsidies across multiple sites. The press release did not include a specific cost estimate for the subsidy. Researchers estimated that domestic RAS-based prawn production could replace about a third of the UK’s prawn imports, eliminating roughly 7 million tonnes of CO2 associated with long-distance freight transport of imported prawns.
“Recirculating aquaculture can reconcile food supply and afforestation in Great Britain,” the study’s title states, reflecting its core finding that the UK does not have to choose between planting more trees and maintaining domestic protein supply. The research was led by Dr. Thiago Morello of the University of Exeter and the Federal University of ABC in Brazil, working with Professor Ian Bateman of the Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute at the University of Exeter Business School, and Dr. Diana Tingley, also of the Exeter Business School. The Journal of Cleaner Production abstract was not independently accessible for this article due to a publisher access restriction; the figures below are drawn from the University of Exeter’s own release describing the study.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| UK protein loss offset by RAS | 80% |
| Land used by RAS relative to woodland expansion | <1% |
| Woodland expansion modelled | 30,000 hectares |
| Share of UK prawn imports replaceable | ~1/3 |
| CO2 saved from avoided prawn import freight | ~7 million tonnes |
| Most cost-effective subsidy design | 100% of upfront cost for one facility |
Background
The findings arrive as the UK pursues afforestation as a climate and biodiversity policy while separately trying to maintain domestic food security, a tension previous research has also flagged around fish farming’s sustainability more broadly; Winss has previously covered doubts raised about the sustainability of some fish farming methods. Large-scale tree-planting programmes elsewhere have run into their own execution problems, as with difficulties encountered in China’s desert-expansion afforestation efforts. The University of Exeter’s Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute, where lead investigator Professor Ian Bateman works, focuses on the economics of land-use trade-offs between agriculture, conservation and development, the same tension this study addresses by proposing a subsidy pathway that lets afforestation proceed without a matching drop in domestic protein supply.
Sources: University of Exeter; Journal of Cleaner Production
Featured image: photo by Lu Zhao on Pexels (free Pexels license).
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I specialize in sustainability education, curriculum co-creation, and early-stage project strategy. At WINSS, I craft articles on sustainability, transformative AI, and related topics. When I’m not writing, you’ll find me chasing the perfect sushi roll, exploring cities around the globe, or unwinding with my dog Puffy — the world’s most loyal sidekick.
