EIA expects US solar generation to rise 19% in summer 2026
The EIA’s June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts US summer solar generation up 19% and wind up 10%, meeting a 3% rise in electricity generation.
Photo by Markus Spiske on Pexels
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects utility-scale solar generation to rise 19% this summer compared with the summer of 2025, according to its June “Short-Term Energy Outlook” released on June 9, 2026. The agency forecasts that above-average temperatures will lift total US electricity generation by 3% over last summer, with growing solar generation and a 10% rise in wind output meeting the extra demand as coal-fired generation falls by 2%.
Solar generation leads summer electricity growth
In its June 9 press release, the EIA stated: “Increased solar (+19%) and wind (+10%) generation will meet demand, as coal (-2%) generation gradually decreases.” According to the outlook, the 19% growth in solar output reflects a 20% increase in the average utility-scale solar capacity available in the summer months of 2026 compared with last summer, while the 10% rise in wind generation is consistent with a nearly 8% increase in average wind capacity.
The June figure is an upward revision: the agency’s April edition of the outlook had put summer solar growth at 17%, as reported by Utility Dive in April 2026.
| Series, summer 2026 vs. summer 2025 | Forecast change |
|---|---|
| Utility-scale solar generation | +19% |
| Wind generation | +10% |
| Total US electricity generation | +3% |
| Coal-fired generation | −2% |
Source: EIA, “Short-Term Energy Outlook”, June 9, 2026.
The June outlook also updates the EIA’s annual forecasts. Solar’s share of total US electricity generation rises from 7% in 2025 to 8% in 2026 and 9% in 2027, while wind moves from 11% to 12% over the same period. Coal’s share declines from 17% in 2025 to 15% in 2027, and natural gas holds at 40%. The agency expects US energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to edge down from 4.9 billion metric tons in 2025 to 4.8 billion metric tons in both 2026 and 2027.
| Share of US generation | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Nuclear | 18% | 18% | 18% |
| Coal | 17% | 16% | 15% |
| Wind | 11% | 11% | 12% |
| Solar | 7% | 8% | 9% |
| Hydropower | 6% | 6% | 6% |
Source: EIA, “Short-Term Energy Outlook”, June 9, 2026.
The growing weight of variable sources in the summer peak raises the question of grid reliability, which Winss Solutions has examined in whether renewable energy is really unreliable due to intermittency and in its look at integrating resilient power systems with sustainable energy practices.
About the EIA
The U.S. Energy Information Administration was created by Congress in 1977 as the independent statistical and analytical agency within the US Department of Energy. It collects and publishes official US energy data and produces the monthly “Short-Term Energy Outlook”, which forecasts supply, demand, and prices across fuels through the end of the following year; the current edition extends through 2027. Its summer electricity outlooks track how the generation mix meets seasonal peak demand, and in the June 2026 edition the agency expects growth in solar and wind generation to meet this summer’s forecast 3% increase in US electricity generation while coal output declines.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration; U.S. Energy Information Administration; BIC Magazine; Utility Dive
Featured image: photo by Markus Spiske on Pexels (free Pexels license).
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I specialize in sustainability education, curriculum co-creation, and early-stage project strategy. At WINSS, I craft articles on sustainability, transformative AI, and related topics. When I’m not writing, you’ll find me chasing the perfect sushi roll, exploring cities around the globe, or unwinding with my dog Puffy — the world’s most loyal sidekick.
