China’s CO2 rose 2% in early 2026 as wind and solar curtailment climbed, CREA finds
China’s CO2 rose 2% in early 2026 as record wind and solar were curtailed, a CREA analysis for Carbon Brief found, with solar curtailment hitting 9.2%.
Photo by Mike Liu on Pexels
China’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy and industry rose 2% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier, as record wind and solar capacity went unused and the country burned more coal and gas, according to analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) for Carbon Brief, published on 4 June 2026. The rebound, driven by rising China renewable curtailment rather than any fall in clean-power build-out, follows the country’s first full calendar-year decline in emissions in 2025.
Curtailment is the deliberate reduction of wind or solar output when the grid cannot absorb it. CREA’s lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta found that clean power equivalent to more than France’s entire electricity output for the quarter was discarded instead of being fed into the network. The independent outlet Climate Home News reported the same finding.
Why China’s renewable curtailment is rising
The analysis attributes the paradox mainly to how China runs its fossil-fuel fleet. Coal and gas plants sell electricity under long-term contracts that give them no reason to cut output when cheaper wind and solar are available. Electricity trading between provinces also runs on annual contracts, which stops surplus renewable power in one region from flowing to another in real time.
Myllyvirta said operators should be required to sell power in real time, so coal plants would face competition from low prices when renewables are plentiful and have a reason to throttle back. “But that has not made a lot of progress in China,” he said. He also noted that real curtailment is probably higher than official figures show, and that without better tracking there will be too little pressure to fix it.
Reported curtailment rates climbed at the start of 2026 to 9.2% for solar and 8.5% for wind, according to figures cited by Bloomberg. The cost of that waste is large: CREA calculates that, had curtailment not risen, the extra capacity could have generated an additional 170 terawatt hours of wind and solar electricity in the quarter — more than enough to cover the growth in power demand. Instead, clean-power generation rose by just 60 terawatt hours, with wind showing almost no growth.
The chain from record renewables build-out to higher emissions runs through the grid, not through any shortfall in clean capacity.
The headline figures are summarised below.
| Indicator (Q1 2026, year-on-year) | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| CO2 from energy and industry | +2% | CREA for Carbon Brief |
| Solar curtailment rate | 9.2% | Bloomberg |
| Wind curtailment rate | 8.5% | Bloomberg |
| Extra wind + solar possible if curtailment had not risen | 170 TWh | CREA for Carbon Brief |
| Actual growth in clean-power generation | 60 TWh | CREA for Carbon Brief |
| Clean power discarded | more than France’s quarterly electricity output | CREA for Carbon Brief |
| Needed rise in annual grid investment by 2030 | about 50% | International Energy Agency |
Figures cover the first quarter of 2026 unless otherwise noted. Sources as listed.
A grid problem beyond China
China is not alone. Curtailment has risen in the United Kingdom, Australia, India, Chile and Brazil, mostly because transmission systems cannot move the extra clean power to where it is needed. The episode feeds the long-running debate over whether renewable energy is unreliable due to intermittency: the problem in this case was not that the wind dropped or the sun set, but that the grid could not absorb or transport the electricity that wind and solar generated.
The International Energy Agency has said annual investment in power grids needs to rise by about 50% by 2030, and warned that if networks fail to curb high curtailment, clean-energy developers face revenue losses that weaken the case for new projects. The risk is concrete: Reuters reported on 3 June 2026 that BlackRock’s Atlas put $1 billion of planned renewables investment in Brazil on hold after the grid operator rejected up to 25% of the power its existing projects could produce.
Background
China is the world’s largest installer of wind and solar power and, in 2025, recorded its first decline in annual CO2 emissions, which analysts had linked to record clean-energy build-out. The first-quarter 2026 data interrupts that trajectory. CREA’s analysis indicates the reversal stems from grid and market rules rather than from any slowdown in renewables: the capacity was built, but a rising share of its output was turned away.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air is an independent research organisation that tracks air pollution and the energy transition, and its quarterly reviews of China’s emissions for Carbon Brief are widely cited. Its latest analysis frames the central task as making the grid and electricity market flexible enough to use the clean power China is already building — the step Myllyvirta argues has yet to materialise.
Sources: Carbon Brief; Climate Home News; Bloomberg; International Energy Agency; Reuters
Featured image: photo by Mike Liu on Pexels (free Pexels license).
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I specialize in sustainability education, curriculum co-creation, and early-stage project strategy. At WINSS, I craft articles on sustainability, transformative AI, and related topics. When I’m not writing, you’ll find me chasing the perfect sushi roll, exploring cities around the globe, or unwinding with my dog Puffy — the world’s most loyal sidekick.
