China’s CO2 emissions fell 1% in the second quarter of 2026 as oil use dropped 9%, Carbon Brief analysis finds

China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell 1 per cent year on year in the second quarter of 2026, according to an analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air published by Carbon Brief on 3 September 2026. The driver was oil: consumption fell about 9 per cent overall and 16 per cent in transport as supply through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted and electric vehicles kept displacing fuel. The analysis states it is the first time a drop in oil use, rather than coal, has been enough to pull China CO2 emissions down overall.

The fall follows a 2 per cent rise in the first quarter, which Carbon Brief attributed to wasted wind and solar power, covered by Winss in China’s CO2 rises as renewable curtailment climbs in 2026. Across the first half of 2026 emissions are up marginally but remain below the peak reached in March 2024. The analysis describes a plateau in emissions from fossil fuels and cement that has now lasted more than two years.

What moved China CO2 emissions in the quarter

The oil figures are drawn from National Bureau of Statistics energy data, customs data and Sinopec’s sales reports. Crude oil processing fell 11 per cent in the quarter, Sinopec’s sales fell 9 per cent and oil imports dropped 32 per cent, with stock drawdowns covering about 60 per cent of the import decline. Air passenger numbers fell 7 per cent in May and June after growing 7 per cent in the first quarter, while urban passenger trips rose 2.9 per cent and commercial freight tonnage 2.4 per cent, which the analysis reads as travel shifting to electrified modes rather than disappearing.

Industry moved the same way. Cement output fell 9 per cent in the quarter after an 8 per cent fall in the first, crude steel output fell 1 per cent and pig iron 3 per cent. Growth in coal-to-chemicals slowed to 8 per cent from 19 per cent in the first quarter, though higher oil prices made the sector more profitable and ethylene output rose 17 per cent.

The power sector ran the other way. Coal use for electricity grew 2.4 per cent in the quarter while gas-fired generation fell 1.2 per cent, and power-sector emissions rose 3.0 per cent across the first half after falling 3.2 per cent in the same period of 2025. Electricity demand growth slowed to 5.2 per cent in the quarter from 5.9 per cent a year earlier. Hydro output rose 9 per cent and nuclear 2 per cent, but the analysis reports exceptionally poor wind conditions and continued curtailment of wind and solar output.

Electric vehicles displaced 19 million tonnes of oil

The analysis estimates that electric vehicles avoided 19 million tonnes of oil consumption in the second quarter, up 50 per cent year on year, and 36 million tonnes across the first half, which it says exceeds the UK’s entire oil consumption over six months. The avoided emissions in the quarter are put at 35 million tonnes of CO2, or 1.3 per cent of China’s total. The number of EVs on the road grew 33 per cent year on year, with 12.1 million added, 8.1 million of them battery-only. Charging volumes rose 60 per cent in the quarter.

Heavy trucks were the fastest-moving segment. Electric heavy-truck sales rose about 77 per cent year on year in the quarter, June sales more than doubled and electric trucks exceeded 45 per cent of new heavy-truck sales. Avoided fuel use from trucks was up 90 per cent in the first half. The analysis notes that the EV effect was almost twice what the growth in fleet size alone would predict, which it links to the higher fuel prices that accompanied the crisis making petrol driving more expensive. It projects avoided oil consumption of 80 million tonnes for the full year, equal to Mexico’s consumption, and states: “This trend is unlikely to be reversed. It has also proven the value of electrification to China’s energy security strategy.”

Source: CREA analysis for Carbon Brief, 3 September 2026. Mtoe = million tonnes of oil equivalent.

Winss has covered the environmental case for the shift in Electric Vehicles (EVs) are Better for the Environment and the role of shared modes in Public transit and micromobility as climate solutions.

Coal build-out and slower storage additions

The power sector’s contribution to the fall was negative for reasons of supply as well as demand. China added 30 GW of new coal-fired capacity in the first half of 2026, the most for any first half since 2016, started construction on another 25 GW and retired less than 3 GW, leaving 204 GW under construction. Battery storage additions slowed to 17 GW in the first half from 23 GW a year earlier, taking total installed capacity to 153 GW. Wind additions comfortably exceeded those of any year except 2025; solar additions slowed sharply, falling behind 2024’s pace but in line with 2023, when more than 200 GW was added by year-end. The analysis does not give a gigawatt figure for solar or wind in the half.

Curtailment remains the constraint on the clean side. Monthly curtailment data has not been published in recent months, according to the analysis, which quotes reported 2025 utilisation rates of 94 per cent for wind and 95 per cent for solar. The power-sector five-year plan published in August raises the permitted curtailment ceiling to 15 per cent in some provinces, from a limit that stood at 5 per cent until it was relaxed to 10 per cent in resource-rich provinces in 2024, with a national average target of around 10 per cent. Myllyvirta writes that “curtailment has emerged as the key obstacle to both continued rapid solar and wind capacity growth and full utilisation of existing capacity.” The land-use side of that build-out is covered in China solar expansion linked to bird diversity loss, and one integrated response in China switches on giant solar-hydrogen-storage plant.

An independent data point from the same week shows how large the solar fleet has become. The National Energy Administration said on 1 September that installed solar capacity reached 1.286 billion kW at the end of July, overtaking coal at 1.285 billion kW for the first time, as reported by Global Times and by AFP via Hong Kong Free Press. Solar generated 802.4 billion kWh in January to July, up 15.5 per cent and equal to 13 per cent of national consumption, and coal’s share of generation fell below 50 per cent in the first half. The IRENA global figures that China dominates are in Renewable energy capacity hit 5,149 GW in 2025: IRENA.

Outlook for 2026 and the 15th Five-Year Plan

The analysis concludes that China’s emissions could still fall for the full year, describing the trend as “a race between energy demand growth and clean-energy growth, both of which have slowed down this year.” If oil demand keeps falling while power-sector emissions plateau, total CO2 would decline. Nuclear will add five reactors totalling 4.5 GW this year, including the Linglong One small modular reactor, and eight new reactors were approved in July. Some 3 GW of conventional hydro was added in the half, with 6 GW targeting operation in 2026. The analysis states China is on track to add enough non-fossil capacity in 2026 to cover electricity demand growth of up to 5 per cent, against the regulator’s projection of 5 to 6 per cent.

The plans for 2026-30 published since March set a target of electricity reaching 35 per cent of final energy use by 2030, from 30 per cent in 2025, and of EVs reaching 30 per cent of the vehicle fleet, from 12 per cent in 2025. On coal, the language has softened: President Xi Jinping pledged in 2021 to gradually reduce coal consumption during the 15th five-year period, while the current target is for coal consumption to “enter a plateau” over those years.

About CREA and Carbon Brief

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air is an independent research organisation registered as a non-profit in Finland with staff across Asia and Europe. It describes its focus as the trends, causes, health impacts and solutions to air pollution, and its lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta has produced the quarterly analysis of China’s emissions for Carbon Brief for several years, based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the National Energy Administration, the China Electricity Council, China Customs, WIND Information and Sinopec.

Carbon Brief is a UK-based specialist climate-change publication edited by Leo Hickman, formerly of the Guardian. Its China series recorded a flat-or-falling trend in emissions from the March 2024 peak through the end of 2025, then a 2 per cent rise in the first quarter of 2026 driven by curtailed renewables, published on 3 June 2026. The 3 September analysis is the first in that series to record a quarterly fall caused by oil rather than coal.

Sources: Carbon Brief; Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air; Carbon Brief; Global Times (National Energy Administration data); Hong Kong Free Press / AFP; Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

Featured image: photo by 04iraq on Pexels (free Pexels license).

Become a Sponsor

Our website is the heart of the mission of WINSS – it’s where we share updates, publish research, highlight community impact, and connect with supporters around the world. To keep this essential platform running, updated, and accessible, we rely on the generosity of you, who believe in our work.

We offer the option to sponsor monthly, or just once choosing the amount of your choice. If you run a company, please contact us via info@winssolutions.org.

• donate monthly
• donate once only

Select a Donation Option (USD)

$5.00 (p/m) $10.00 (p/m) $20.00 (p/m) Other (p/m)

Enter Donation Amount (USD)

Figen Sekin

I specialize in sustainability education, curriculum co-creation, and early-stage project strategy. At WINSS, I craft articles on sustainability, transformative AI, and related topics. When I’m not writing, you’ll find me chasing the perfect sushi roll, exploring cities around the globe, or unwinding with my dog Puffy — the world’s most loyal sidekick.