Australia’s emissions fall to 455.6 Mt as record wind generation displaces gas
Australia’s emissions fell 1.6% to 455.6 Mt CO2-e in the year to March 2026, 25% below 2005, as wind generation in the NEM rose a record 20.3% and gas fell.
Photo by Egor Komarov on Pexels
Australia emissions for the year to March 2026 are estimated at 455.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, a fall of 1.6 per cent or 7.5 Mt on the previous year, according to the “Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: March 2026” published by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water on Friday 28 August 2026. That leaves national emissions 25.0 per cent below 2005 levels, the base year for Australia’s target of a 43 per cent cut by 2030.
Electricity did most of the work. Sector emissions fell 3.7 per cent, or 5.6 Mt, which the department attributed to record renewables generation and the continuing displacement of coal and gas. Inside the National Electricity Market, total renewable generation rose 13.0 per cent over the year, with wind recording its largest increase on record at 20.3 per cent. Gas generation fell 17.1 per cent and coal generation fell 4.1 per cent.
What moved in the Australia emissions data
Four sectors fell and two rose. Transport reversed direction: it had been down 0.6 per cent in the year to December 2025 and is up 0.2 per cent in the year to March 2026, driven by higher diesel consumption for road transport and more domestic aviation, partly offset by lower petrol use. Industrial processes and product use rose 2.1 per cent, mainly on increased steel production.
| Sector | Change, year to March 2026 | Mt CO2-e |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity | Down 3.7% | 5.6 |
| Fugitive emissions | Down 3.3% | 1.5 |
| Agriculture | Down 1.0% | 0.8 |
| Stationary energy excluding electricity | Down 0.2% | 0.2 |
| Transport | Up 0.2% | 0.2 |
| Industrial processes and product use | Up 2.1% | 0.6 |
| National total | Down 1.6% | 7.5 |
Source: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, “Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: March 2026”, 28 August 2026.
The fall in fugitive emissions of 1.5 Mt came from reduced natural gas venting, new carbon capture and storage activity, and lower production from underground coal mining. Agriculture’s 0.8 Mt reduction reflects lower grazing cattle and sheep numbers.
How the 2030 budget is tracking
Australia’s target is written into section 10 of the Climate Change Act 2022 as a 43 per cent reduction on 2005 levels by 2030 and net zero by 2050, and the department tracks it as both a point target and a cumulative emissions budget for 2021 to 2030. On that measure the report states Australia is 58 per cent of the way through the Paris Agreement target period and has generated emissions equivalent to 60 per cent of the budget to 2030. Over the 23 quarters since the budget period began, Australia has emitted 2,634 Mt CO2-e, leaving 1,729 Mt.
The pace of decline has slowed. In the year to December 2025 emissions fell 2.1 per cent, or 9.7 Mt; in the year to March 2026 the fall is 1.6 per cent, or 7.5 Mt. The department also revised the previous preliminary estimate for the year to March 2026 downward, from 457.7 Mt in the December 2025 update to 455.6 Mt now.
Two longer-run measures fell further than the headline. The emissions intensity of the economy is down 55.3 per cent on the year to June 2005, and emissions per person are 45.7 per cent lower than in the same base period.
The report also carries a preliminary estimate for the year to June 2026 of 452.4 Mt CO2-e, a fall of 1.8 per cent or 8.2 Mt, with the June quarter at 111.2 Mt in trend terms. That number will be finalised in the June 2026 Quarterly Update, due in November 2026.
Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said in the accompanying release that “we’re seeing the results of consistent and considerable cuts in electricity grid emissions”, and on the transport figures, that “Australia is turning the corner when it comes to stubborn transport pollution”. The transport sector’s emissions rose over the year, so the minister’s remark refers to the trajectory rather than the annual total. Reporting by AAP, carried by RenewEconomy, framed the result as requiring deeper cuts to meet the 2030 target; the department itself does not make that assessment.
Vehicles, batteries and the sources of the electricity fall
The vehicle numbers cited around the release come from industry data rather than the inventory. VFACTS figures for July 2026 put electrified vehicles, meaning battery electric, plug-in hybrid and conventional hybrid combined, at 48.4 per cent of new sales. The Electric Vehicle Council reported 23,510 battery electric sales for the month, 22.3 per cent of the market, against 7.2 per cent in July 2025, and 10,359 plug-in hybrids at 9.8 per cent, putting the combined electric share at 32.2 per cent for the month and 26.7 per cent year to date, with a national fleet of about 650,000.
On the supply side, the department’s release points to a record June quarter confirmed by the Clean Energy Regulator, with more than 1 GW of rooftop solar installed and 1.8 GW of large-scale solar reaching final investment decision, and to the Capacity Investment Scheme supporting an additional 26 GW of solar and wind backed by 14 GW of storage. Australia now has more than 4 million household solar systems and more than half a million home batteries, a milestone Winss Solutions covered when Australia passed 500,000 Cheaper Home Batteries installations. The build-out behind the electricity result was also visible in the record 9.1 GW of renewables added in FY26, while the displacement of gas shows up in market data indicating batteries set Australian power prices 16.3 per cent of the time.
One limitation is stated in the report itself: emissions from the land sector are held constant at the levels from the most recent full inventory, because quarterly land-use estimates are not produced.
Background: what the Quarterly Update is
The Quarterly Update is the Australian government’s regular estimate of national greenhouse gas emissions, published four times a year with a lag of about five months. It gives final estimates to the most recently completed quarter and a preliminary estimate for the quarter after. The department compiles it under the emissions estimation rules countries adopted through the Paris Agreement, and Australia submits annual National Inventory Reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which reviews them for transparency, accuracy, completeness, comparability and consistency.
The 43 per cent target and net zero by 2050 were legislated in 2022. On 18 September 2025 the Prime Minister, Treasurer and Minister for Climate Change and Energy announced a 2035 target of a 62 to 70 per cent reduction on 2005 levels, adopted as Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution on advice from the Climate Change Authority. That range has been announced rather than confirmed as legislated. Industrial facilities covered by the Safeguard Mechanism face their own declining baselines, the subject of a separate debate on the decline rate investors have urged the government to set at 7 per cent. The next data point on the national total arrives in November, when the June 2026 quarter is finalised.
Sources: Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water; DCCEEW, Quarterly Update PDF; Minister for Climate Change and Energy, media release; RenewEconomy, AAP; DCCEEW, December 2025 Quarterly Update; Electric Vehicle Council; Prime Minister of Australia; Climate Change Act 2022, section 10
Featured image: photo by Egor Komarov on Pexels (free Pexels license).
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I specialize in sustainability education, curriculum co-creation, and early-stage project strategy. At WINSS, I craft articles on sustainability, transformative AI, and related topics. When I’m not writing, you’ll find me chasing the perfect sushi roll, exploring cities around the globe, or unwinding with my dog Puffy — the world’s most loyal sidekick.
