In a recent post on the social network X, Elon Musk said that global birth rates are “collapsing”. The term collapsing seems a bit too dramatic, however, global birth rates are indeed declining significantly depending on the region and context.
Population collapse is a massive crisis https://t.co/T5B62ijpUA
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 24, 2025
The global total fertility rate (TFR) – that is the average number of children born per woman – has dropped from 4.84 in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021, with projections estimating a further decline to 1.59 by 2100. The replacement rate needed to maintain a population is about 2.1–2.3 children per woman, and over half of all countries (110 of 204) were below this level by 2021, and also as of 2023, many countries have fertility rates that fall below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Fertility Rates by Country (2023)
| Country | Fertility Rate (2023) |
|---|---|
| South Korea | 0.72 |
| Italy | 1.24 |
| Japan | 1.30 |
| France | 1.80 |
| Sweden | 1.76 |
| Nigeria | 5.32 |
| India | 2.03 |
| USA | 1.64 |
This is a trend attributed to a complex interplay of economic, cultural, and social factors. This global shift raises concerns about population sustainability, labor shortages, and the viability of social welfare systems, particularly in aging societies such as Japan, Germany, and Italy.
We went looking for answers.
Historical Context: From Growth to Decline
Historically, global birth rates were high due to lower mortality rates and economic structures that favored larger families. The early 20th century saw population booms across much of the world.
However, beginning in the mid-20th century, fertility rates began to decline sharply. This shift was driven by increased access to education and contraception, rising urbanization, and evolving gender roles. In Europe and North America, cultural shifts further reduced societal pressure to marry young or have large families.
The introduction of birth control and state policies – most notably China’s one-child policy – accelerated these changes, creating a further decline in the global birth rates. By 1993, the global average fertility rate had declined to three children per woman, down from five in the 1950s. As of the 2020s, fertility rates in countries like South Korea and Italy have dropped below 1.3, signaling potential long-term population decline.
Global Trends in Fertility and Global Birth Rates
The trend of declining fertility and global birth rates is no longer limited to developed nations. Emerging markets in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and parts of Asia are also seeing fertility rates fall below replacement levels. According to projections, by 2100, 97% of countries could have sub-replacement fertility rates.
Sub-Saharan Africa remains an outlier with higher fertility rates, but even there, modernization, education, and access to healthcare are driving a gradual decline. Meanwhile, countries like France and Sweden maintain relatively higher fertility rates through aggressive family support policies.
The global TFR peaked around 1960–1965 at approximately 5.02 children per woman. Since then, it has steadily declined, reaching an estimated 2.42 in the 2020–2025 period. This decline reflects widespread demographic transitions influenced by factors such as increased access to education and contraception, urbanization, and shifts in societal norms.
| Period | Global TFR |
|---|---|
| 1950–1955 | 4.86 |
| 1955–1960 | 4.90 |
| 1960–1965 | 5.02 |
| 1965–1970 | 4.93 |
| 1970–1975 | 4.47 |
| 1975–1980 | 3.86 |
| 1980–1985 | 3.59 |
| 1985–1990 | 3.44 |
| 1990–1995 | 3.01 |
| 1995–2000 | 2.78 |
| 2000–2005 | 2.65 |
| 2005–2010 | 2.58 |
| 2010–2015 | 2.52 |
| 2015–2020 | 2.47 |
| 2020–2025 | 2.42 |
Visually the global TFR projections, as compiled by United Nations’ World Population Prospects, look like this.
Causes of Declining Global Birth Rates
There are various causes for the decline in global birth rates. But 4 of them are key in understanding the decline.
Economic Pressures: Rising living costs, housing insecurity, and the financial burden of raising children have led many young people to delay or forgo parenthood. In wealthy nations, the “quality-over-quantity” approach to parenting leads families to invest heavily in fewer children.
Labor Market Realities: Increased female participation in the workforce has brought progress but also added complexity. Without supportive policies like affordable childcare or flexible work schedules, many women feel forced to choose between careers and family life.
Cultural Shifts: Changing attitudes toward marriage and family have reshaped expectations. Greater individualism, a focus on self-fulfillment, and a decline in religious and societal pressures mean more people are choosing to remain single or child-free.
Policy and Governance Gaps: While many governments have introduced financial incentives, tax credits, and childcare support, these efforts often fall short without addressing underlying structural issues like workplace discrimination or lack of housing affordability.
Consequences of a Slowing Global Birth Rate
While the main causes seem limited, the consequences of a slowing global birth rate are multiple and with huge implications. We identified the 9 main ones, but rest assured that there are plenty more.
1. Population Aging: Falling global birth rates lead to a higher proportion of elderly citizens. This demographic inversion means fewer workers supporting a growing retiree population, straining pension and healthcare systems.
2. Shrinking Workforce: Countries with sub-replacement fertility are already experiencing labor shortages. Japan and Germany face severe constraints in healthcare, technology, and industrial sectors. A smaller labor force reduces GDP growth and consumer demand.
3. Economic Stagnation: Low global birth rates correlate with slower innovation, reduced entrepreneurial activity, and a decline in long-term productivity. The dynamism associated with youthful populations wanes, affecting entire economies.
4. Urban-Rural Divide: Declining populations hit rural regions hardest. With youth migrating to cities, remote areas face school closures, service withdrawal, and infrastructural decay, compounding social inequality.
5. National Security Risks: Military readiness and national service programs depend on a robust young population. Countries with shrinking youth cohorts face difficulties in maintaining defense capabilities.
6. Cultural Erosion: Languages, customs, and regional identities risk fading as smaller generations fail to sustain cultural continuity, especially in marginalized communities.
7. Strained Welfare Systems: With more retirees and fewer contributors, pension funds and healthcare systems become unsustainable unless significant reforms are enacted.
Projected Old-Age Dependency Ratios:
| Country | 2023 (%) | 2050 (%) (Projected) |
| Japan | 48.2 | 75.0 |
| Germany | 35.4 | 60.0 |
| Italy | 36.0 | 62.0 |
| USA | 27.1 | 45.0 |
| France | 32.9 | 53.0 |
| South Korea | 24.7 | 60.0 |
8. Education System Impacts: Lower enrollment may lead to school closures or consolidation, affecting education quality and teacher employment.
9. Urban Planning Challenges: An aging population demands accessible infrastructure and housing, requiring major urban redesigns.
Responses and Policy Approaches
Governments have adopted various strategies to address fertility decline and counter falling global birth rates:
- Financial Incentives: Countries like France and Estonia provide generous child allowances, tax benefits, and free childcare. France spends up to 3.5% of its GDP on family policies.
- Workplace Reforms: Sweden pioneered paid paternal leave and offers flexible parental benefits, helping to balance work and family life.
- Education and Training: Policies that support job security and career development for young adults help reduce economic anxiety.
- Immigration: Some nations offset population decline by welcoming younger, skilled migrants—but this can trigger social and political tensions.
- Cultural Campaigns: Destigmatizing parental leave, promoting gender equality, and normalizing shared caregiving duties help foster a supportive family environment.
Measures Taken Globally to Counter Global Birth Rates Decline
While there is indeed action being taken on various ‘fronts’ as we explained earlier, some countries take extra measures to counter the declines in their country.
France: Known for its comprehensive support system, France provides long parental leaves, subsidized daycare, and progressive tax benefits that grow with family size. These policies have helped maintain a relatively high fertility rate.
Sweden: Sweden’s government provides 16 months of parental leave shared between both parents, with 13 months paid at 80% salary. It also supports gender equality in caregiving and offers affordable, high-quality childcare.
Estonia: Estonia offers 18 months of paid parental leave at 100% salary (with caps) and extensive support for early childhood development. These measures aim to encourage both fertility and gender equity.
South Korea: Despite a TFR below 1.1, South Korea has introduced a national strategy under its Basic Act for Measures to Address the Declining Birth Rate. Policies include monthly cash incentives, fertility treatments, and tax relief, though cultural barriers and work pressures persist.
Japan: Japan has launched comprehensive birth rate recovery plans, including expanded nursery capacity, parental leave reforms, and housing benefits for families with children.
Hungary: Hungary provides lifetime income tax exemption for women with four or more children, interest-free loans for young couples, and home purchase subsidies. It ties fertility policies to national identity and family values.
Singapore: The government offers baby bonuses, subsidized IVF treatments, priority housing for families, and extended maternity/paternity leave. Despite these efforts, the birth rate remains low due to urban pressures and career demands.
China: After ending its one-child policy, China now encourages larger families with tax breaks, housing subsidies, and support for third-child births. However, economic concerns and work-life stress have slowed uptake.
Canada and Germany: Both countries emphasize work-life balance through flexible parental leave, family tax benefits, and immigrant integration to counterbalance low native birth rates.
The Future Outlook
Without intervention, global fertility decline will change the demographic structure of most nations. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects that by 2050, over 75% of countries will be below the replacement rate – and that could rise to 97% by 2100.
The implications are profound: slowing economies, political instability, and growing inequalities between aging, developed nations and younger, developing regions.
Countries must take comprehensive, cross-sector action to reverse or adapt to these trends. Investments in family support, cultural transformation, and inclusive policy design will be essential – not just to boost global birth rates, but to ensure social and economic sustainability in the decades to come.
